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Most very simple theories have the virtue of being logically understood. Psychologists have shown that simply understanding a proposition makes us implicitly accept it as true. Per Johansson's theory is one such. It's deceptively simple, literally, and it could actually be true. As such the theory is logically valid. However, he confuses correlation with causality. Yes, Sweden have good numbers, yes they are tough on crime, but causality evaporates quickly when actual observations from all over the world are gathered. It's a smart rhetorical thing to do: state your hypothesis as if it were fact, then when confronted with actual evidence, re-state your article of belief and hope no one notices.